Cepr business cycle dating committee
Aggregate employment has fallen substantially as well.Among the four indicators, only income has behaved differently over the past 7 months from recession averages.
In addition, the committee refers to two indicators with coverage of manufacturing and goods: (1) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and trade sectors stated in real terms, adjusted for price changes, and (2) industrial production.The cumulative decline is now about 0.7 percent, about two-thirds of the total decline in the average recession. A peak occurred in September 2000 and the index declined over the next 12 months by close to 6 percent, surpassing the average decline in the earlier recessions of 4.6 percent. This measure has continued to rise in recent months and has not yet reached a peak.